From the Director’s Desk: Dueling Almanacs
Dueling Almanacs
Earlier this week I noted a number of regional news outlets were covering the weather predictions offered by the Farmer’s Almanac, an annual publication that offers predictions on the weather, sunrises, tide tables, and frost predictions amongst other things. I’ve linked a couple of the stories in the Industry News section for your review, but the Almanac or Almanacs (as it is) are worth spending a little time on.
For starters, there are two national agricultural almanacs, each in circulation for more than 200 years. Each follows a format established by none other than Benjamin Franklin’s Poor Richard’s Almanack. The Old Farmer’s Almanac has been in circulation since 1793. The Farmers’ Almanac, a competing publication has been in circulation since 1818. Their enduring success makes it clear that large portions of our economy are highly weather-dependent. The people working in farming, forestry, construction, commercial fishing, heating, and many more industries continue to show strong demand for both publications' weather predictions despite the lackluster accuracy of the predictions. The Wikipedia pages for each publication outline the methodologies for these predictions (sunspots, ocean tides, etc.) as well as the studies that have been done regarding their accuracy. John Walsh from the University of Illinois completed a review of five years’ worth of monthly weather predictions and found the accuracy rate came in at 51.9%. A guess at a coin toss would yield roughly the same accuracy rate. Most fascinating to me is that despite the disappointing accuracy rate the Almanac (both versions) still finds an audience hungry for any kind of guidance on the weather, myself included.
So, what does the Farmers’ Almanac tell us for this year? Citing a La Nina pattern the Farmers’ Almanac is predicting more precipitation across the country than last year. Colder temps and average snowfall are predicted in the Upper Midwest, the Pacific Northwest will be “chilly, wet” and the crucial Northeast will be “moderate temps, wet & white.” Curious to know what the Almanac offered about last year, I did some googling and found the article published by USA Today one year ago after the Farmers Almanac published the 2023-24 prediction. The story included this quote from Pete Geiger, editor.
“After a weird and warm winter season last year, this winter should make cold weather fans rejoice – especially those in the Great Lakes, Midwest, and northern New England areas," he said.
So yeah. Not so much. So the Almanac predictions are a little like sports predictions, interested parties gobble them up but they have bear little resemblance to what will actually transpire, unless of course they do.
—Tim Portz
Executive Director
