From the Director’s Desk: Predicting Our September
Predicting Our September
Today at noon the EIA’s Monthly Densified Biomass Report will be updated with September data. Because of the production time required to generate the Pellet Wire, there is no good opportunity to react to the data and maintain our publication schedule. In consideration of that, let’s have a little fun and offer some educated guesses and allow all Pellet Wire readers to do a side-by-side comparison when the data comes out. Historically, September sales have eclipsed 200,000 tons. The monthly average is 210,000 tons and sales have failed to reach 200,000 tons just twice (2016 and 2021). July and August sales this year have failed to achieve their historic averages. I’ll split the difference and predict that September sales will eclipse 200,000 tons, but fall short of the 210,000 averages for the month. Let’s make it 205,000 tons.
Total U.S. production averaged 147,000 tons in September. Using just the last three years, the average climbed to around 160,000 tons. Last year, producers manufactured 157,917 tons. Production totals in July and August, like sales totals, have lagged slightly behind prior year totals. I remember September as unseasonably warm in most parts of the country and I suspect purchase orders from retailers were still stuck in the mud a bit. Looking at inventory positions in August, I would say that only producers in the West were uncomfortable with their inventory positions and really leaned into the production throttle. Producers in the West produced at about 110% of last year’s numbers through the summer and I suspect that September will reveal they maintained that same output. In the East, producers closed August with more inventory on the ground (155,101 tons) than the same time the year prior. I think a slight modulation in production will show up there balancing out the increased production I suspect we will see in the West. I predict 105,000 tons in the East, 44,000 tons in the West (a high-water mark for the year), and 20,000 tons in the South for a total of 169,000 tons.
