From the Director’s Desk: Heating Degree Days Rallying in Early December, Your Average December, Fuel Choice Fight Continues in New York, Best Wishes for 2025
Heating Degree Days Rallying in Early December
The November 18th edition of the Pellet Fuels Institute Heating Degree Day (HDDs) Index found all but one locale trailing last year’s accumulated HDDs, with most well into double-digit percentage points behind. Rapid City, South Dakota, was trailing last year’s pace by 29%. Last year’s winter set records in many locales, so trailing what was an abnormally warm year raised eyebrows around the industry.
Fortunately, the mercury dropped around the country over the Thanksgiving holiday. This week’s Heating Degree Day Index suggests we are progressing towards last year’s pace, with all locales within single-digit percentage points. Rapid City, South Dakota, is now within 8% of last year’s pace. The Northeast continues to shine, with both Portland, Maine, and Concord, New Hampshire, right in line with last year’s pace. Concord is actually 1% ahead of last year’s pace, bringing a green digit back to the index for the first time in a month.
Of course, last year’s HDDs are not what we are looking for. Producers would like to see accumulated Heating Degree Days 10–15% higher than last year. When the calendar flips, producers will be looking for extended cold snaps to get augers turning and wood pellets selling like they should in the middle of winter.
Your Average December
There are three months of the year when nationwide wood pellet sales, on average, top 200,000 tons. December is not one of them. Consumers typically use the preceding three months to stock up for the season. As a result, the three months when producers sell above 200,000 tons are September, October, and November.
In 2023, production and sales for December were off their 5-year averages. The inventory position last December found producers holding nearly 200,000 tons of wood pellets—the highest December inventory position since 2017.
The Numbers – 5-year average - (2023 totals) – record
Production: 150,644 tons (138,810) – 165,606 in 2019
Sales: 168,964 tons (147,605) – 216,295 in 2016
Inventory: 108,372 tons (190,268) – 443,338 in 2016
The first half of December felt like it was headed in the right direction regarding accumulating HDDs. The Upper Midwest even saw some single-digit and below-zero lows for a couple of days. The Climate Prediction Center's 14-day outlook shows that average temps will predominate across the country for the last two weeks of the year. Within that broad prediction, there are glimmers of hope in specific locales. Strong, Maine, shows below-zero lows on Sunday. Those are the kind of temperatures the industry is hoping Santa will bring for Christmas.
Fuel Choice Fight Continues in New York
One of the more interesting and potentially disruptive regulatory fronts in the broader home heating sector is the ongoing battle over outright fossil fuel bans underway in municipalities and states around the country. Earlier this year, after a long legal battle, a law prohibiting natural gas was repealed in the city of Berkeley, California, after a successful lawsuit by the California Restaurant Association. Bans and state laws prohibiting bans (26 states now have laws protecting fuel choice) continue to pop up. This week, an update on a similar lawsuit in New York State crossed my desk from hearth industry advocates fighting a ban on new natural gas installations set to take effect in buildings less than seven stories tall in January 2026.
This situation is coming to a head now. If you live in New York State and are considering building a new home, this introduces questions that builders don’t have good answers for:
“Can I put a natural gas furnace in my home if the home is finished by 2026?”
“What if my construction project is late and isn’t finished by 2026 but I have already installed a natural gas furnace and its related infrastructure in my home?”
“If I know the home won’t be completed before 2026, am I really limited to heat pumps?”
These and other questions begin to pile up quickly. I have included two different news items in this edition of the Pellet Wire that I urge you to read. I thought they were both well written and highlighted the complexity of the impact this ban could have. This story enters 2025 as one of the biggest to watch not just in the home heating sector, but in national energy and climate policy as well.
Best Wishes for 2025
I’ll close this edition of the Pellet Wire by offering my sincere wishes for a happy and peaceful holiday season for you and your family. Thank you for your readership and your membership this year. The first issue of the Pellet Wire in 2025 will be published on Friday, January 10th.
“When we recall Christmas past, we usually find that the simplest things – not the great occasions – give off the greatest glow of happiness.” – Bob Hope
Here’s hoping your holiday is full of the simple things.
