5-year average (2024 data) – both in tons
East
Sales – 45,196 (34,214)
Production – 89,419 (81,967)
Inventory – 136,037 (193,217)
West
Sales – 28,175 (12,097)
Production – 37,114 (33,111)
Inventory – 36,626 (74,746)
South
Sales – 16,741 (13,043)
Production – 16,812 (16,326)
Inventory – 36,650 (45,103)
All U.S.
Sales – 90,182 (59,354)
Production – 144,045 (131,404)
Inventory – 209,306 (313,066)
...Plus a Prediction
In 2024, just one month achieved or exceeded the 5-year average, and it wasn’t March. In fact, March tallied the biggest departure from its 5-year average last year with 59,354 tons sold, or roughly 54% of the March average. March shows high variability throughout the EIA’s Monthly Densified Biomass Fuel Report, with a high of 157,906 tons in 2019 and last year’s 59,354 as a low. We’ve been watching Heating Degree Days accumulate faster this season than last, and reports from members indicate that January and February saw significantly increased demand compared to last year. As of Monday morning, the PFI Heating Degree Day Index showed accumulated HDDs at least 10% ahead of last year’s pace at all but four of the 12 index locations. While the industry knows that increased HDDs lead to increased pellet use, the nature of how and where the impact will show up is less well understood.
So, a prediction:
I think when the January numbers are published in April, we will see the marketplace impact of a widespread cold we haven’t experienced in at least three years. I think a 200,000-ton sales month is absolutely possible. Temperatures got low and stayed low throughout January and February, and reports from the field indicated that sales were brisk. But where does that leave March? My front yard vacillates between sun-drenched dormant grass and wet, heavy snow for much of March. As I type this, it is 62 and sunny in Harrisburg, PA (a PFI HDD index location), but wet, cool weather shows up in the 10-day forecast.
I think March 2025 finds the month trending closer to the 5-year average (90,812 tons), with consumers being motivated by their recent weather experiences to lay in a little more inventory to close out what has been a cold back half of the 2024-25 heating season.
Gauging Trump's Deregulatory Zeal
In this edition of the Pellet Wire’s Industry News section, I have included a link to a news story that includes a short video address from EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin. In the address, Administrator Zeldin announces the largest deregulatory action in American history and continues promising to make it more affordable to “buy a car, heat your home, or operate your business.” The widespread actions, mentioned briefly in the address, are offered as part of President Trump’s intention to “unleash American energy.”
While the closest Administrator Zeldin got to mentioning the wood pellet sector specifically was his promise to make it more affordable to “heat your home,” industry observers and participants have to feel good about the sentiment. Under the Biden administration, wood pellet manufacturers watched as National Ambient Air Quality Standards were ratcheted down even tighter, making the prospect of a new or amended air permit daunting at best, and impossible at worst. Additionally, the broader wood pellet community watched as the agency launched a Wood Pellet Inquiry/Wood Pellet Research Program, about which little could be learned regarding its aim, its purpose, or why a small corner of the wood products manufacturing sector attracted a targeted research effort from the agency.
Too often, the EPA felt like it was being weaponized against our industry by parties that were interested in driving modern wood heating out of the energy landscape of the future.
The work the PFI must commit itself to now is finding staffers within the agency interested in hearing the story of a solid fuel utilized by perhaps 1% of American households and how the agency has a history of misunderstanding how our fuel is produced and utilized.
Perhaps of most interest to wood pellet manufacturers and wood heating appliance manufacturers is how this deregulatory posture will impact a consent decree that compels the EPA to review, and if appropriate, update new source performance standards (NSPS) for new residential wood heaters and new residential hydronic heaters and forced-air furnaces. I have included Biomass Magazine’s article from October about this consent decree in the Industry News section for your convenience. Remember, it was within the NSPS that wood pellet specifications were originally included. They were poorly written and demonstrated little understanding of how wood pellets were actually made. The Pellet Fuels Institute pushed back on these poorly written specifications, and ultimately the agency excised all of the specifications except for the list of prohibited materials (after clarifying that untreated wood pallets were NOT on the prohibited list).
The NSPS also included emissions limits, themselves a continuing point of contention, as the EPA has awarded $8.8 million to NESCAUM to research stove testing methodology and presumably offer an alternative.
That a Zeldin-led EPA is already a stark departure from the Biden administration’s EPA is clear. What is less clear is how all of this will impact the regulatory environment of wood and wood pellet heating, far from the marquee scale of the coal, oil, and gas sectors Zeldin’s early actions were clearly aimed at. This is where the Pellet Fuels Institute comes in. Administrator Zeldin can’t be expected to know the myriad ways federal regulation can provide headwinds to our sector, so it falls to the PFI and PFI members to show him.
