From the Director’s Desk: Dispatch from the Deep Freeze, Your Average January, Artemis II
Dispatch from the Deep Freeze
Every winter, the Minneapolis area logs a few days below zero. Some years there are more than others, and some years we get an early taste of them in December, but they always seem to happen. A quick ChatGPT inquiry reveals that, on average, the Minneapolis area experiences 4.2 days per year below zero. The forecast for this weekend suggests that we’ll get at least two. With natural gas lines running down every suburban street, Minneapolis is hardly a robust wood pellet heating market, but anyone keeping an ear on their furnace can get a sense of what could temperatures do for fuel consumption. On those days when the forecasts warn of “frigid” temperatures, my furnace is on more than it's off. The same thing holds for wood pellet appliances, and based on the 8 -14 day outlook the cold air mass that will cover this area over the weekend will move east, plunging temperatures in the more traditional wood pellet markets in the Appalachian and mid-Atlantic states.
This cold air should bolster accumulating Heating Degree Days across the east, which spent the majority of the month sliding closer to last year’s number after swelling to as high as 28% (Harrisburg, PA, and Buffalo, NY) ahead of the prior year on the December 14, 2025, PFI Heating Degree Day Index. On Monday, the Heating Degree Day surplus had sagged to 14%. I suspect this cold snap will push those numbers back above 20% in the coming weeks, which will undoubtedly lead to more pellet consumption than last year.
Your Average January
5 – year average (January 2025 data) – in tons
East
Sales – 77, 959 (100,674)
Production – 95,227 (77,645)
Inventory – 90,718 (111,241)
South
Sales – 22,788 (30,260)
Production – 17,341 (17,724)
Inventory – 24,361 (4,637)
All U.S.
Sales – 136,720 (169,556)
Production – 149,215 (130,255)
Inventory – 152,027 (195,523)
When compiling these numbers, I was first struck by how strong January of 2025 was in the East. Sales eclipsed 100,000 tons in the region for the first time since 2020. The West was strong too, with more than 70,000 tons sold in the month. As mentioned earlier, temperatures there are expected to be below average through the first handful of days in February. The 10-day forecast for Harrisburg shows single-digit lows in five of the next 10 days. I’m predicting another 100,000 tons plus January for the East. Sales over 110,000 would put January 2026 in the top three best Januarys since 2006. I’ll go out on a limb here and predict 112,000 tons for the month.
I doubt the West will achieve last year’s figures, however. The same forecasts that point to frigid air in Appalachia and the Northeast show the Pacific Northwest’s mild winter will continue. The 10-day forecast for Baker City, Oregon, shows daytime highs well above freezing through the end of the month, spending most of the stretch in the mid-40s during daytime hours. Pellet stoves will be burning, but far from peak output and consumption.
Artemis II
Next month, NASA will send four astronauts into space for a close pass of the moon, a step in its multi-phased effort to put people back on the moon for the first time since 1972. Admittedly, the Artemis mission has nothing at all to do with wood pellets, but I came of age during the Space Shuttle era, remembering where I was when the first shuttle flight was made and where I was when the Challenger, with teacher Christa McAuliffe aboard and the eyes of the nation watching, exploded shortly after takeoff. I’ve long been fascinated by space and space exploration, seeing it as the natural evolution of a species obsessed with what’s “over there” or “out there.” When was the last time the majority of people in this country were cheering for the same thing? I’m hopeful the Artemis launch can jump-start our collective ambition as a country, which right now seems locked down like an aged car battery on a cold Minneapolis morning.
—Tim Portz
Executive Director
