From the Director’s Desk: 5 Races We Watched, August EIA Data Recap, Look Ahead to the 119th Congress
5 Races We Watched
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District
Jared Golden (D) vs. Austin Theriault (R)
As of the writing of this edition of the Pellet Wire, this race was entering a ranked choice voting, as neither candidate earned 50% of the votes. This race, and how it finally shakes out, takes on additional intrigue as the balance of power in the House hangs in the balance of this and sixteen other races yet to be called (as of Monday, November 11th). I’ve included an article explaining ranked choice voting and the recount in this race in the Industry News section if you’d like to know more.
New York’s 19th Congressional District
Mike Molinaro (R) vs. Josh Riley (D)
In another very close race, Josh Riley (D) won the election flipping this key Empire State seat from Republican to a Democrat. Riley and Molinaro were locked in a tight race for this seat in 2022, with Molinaro winning by a narrow margin that year.
Oregon’s 5th Congressional District
Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R) vs. Janelle Bynum (D)
What are the odds that the two House races featured in the Pellet Wire would each see a Republican incumbent lose to a Democratic challenger, particularly in a year that saw the Republicans win the White House, the Senate, and most likely the House.
Michigan Senate Race
Elisa Slotkin (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R)
In an incredibly close race, Michiganders selected Elisa Slotkin to succeed Debbie Stabenow in the Senate. Slotkin won the race by just over 20,000 votes in a race where 5.3 million were cast.
Wisconsin Senate Race
Tammy Baldwin (D) vs. Eric Hovde (R)
Tammy Baldwin won a second term in the U.S. Senate in another incredibly close race in Wisconsin, winning by 25,000 votes in a race that saw 3.4 million votes cast.
August EIA Data Recap
The numbers (5-year average):
August 2024
East
Sales – 98,251 (125,629)
Production – 93,757 (108,791)
Inventory – 192,246 (143,334)
West
Sales – 32,013 (48,499)
Production –32,750 (40,480)
Inventory – 100,706 (76,273)
South
Sales – 25,215 (30,241)
Production – 14,462 (26,304)
Inventory – 52,388 (44,434)
All U.S.
Sales – 155,479 (203,979)
Production – 140,969 (175,576)
Inventory – 345,340 (264,041)
August confirmed that, for now, producers are waiting until sales pick up to ramp up production. Sales and production numbers were well off their five-year averages, while inventory remained significantly higher than normal. I would expect modest production in September and October, as producers let demand from this heating season eat into their standing inventory.
Early Look Ahead to the 119th Congress
As of the writing of this Pellet Wire, a Republican majority is a certainty in the Senate and all but certain in the House. With President-elect Donald Trump in the White House, it seems that the Republicans have secured a “red sweep.” The 119th Congress will begin its term with a lengthy list of to-dos, including a Farm Bill that is already on extension. It is anybody’s guess as to where Congress will begin its work, but our counsel in Washington D.C. is doubtful that much will occur in the so-called “Lame Duck” session apart from a resolution to continue to fund the federal government. In September, the Senate voted to fund the government through December 20, 2024.
The Pellet Fuels Institute legislative affairs committee has already met to discuss how the election results impact our portfolio of policy and regulatory issues and is developing plans for a spring fly-in to reconnect with our supporters and introduce ourselves, our industry, and our product to the newly elected members of Congress.
