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From the Director’s Desk: November EIA Data Recap, Policy Watch - Fly-In April 9
November EIA Data Recap
The numbers (5-year average):
November 2024
East
Sales – 67,931 (112,507)
Production – 81,035 (104,734)
Inventory – 147,099 (87,468)
West
Sales – 40,027 (43,051)
Production – 34,127 (38,610)
Inventory – 77,412 (44,581)
South
Sales – 15,525 (36,316)
Production – 12,916 (19,696)
Inventory – 38,866 (30,672)
All U.S.
Sales – 129,500 (209,615)
Production – 131,185 (167,294)
Inventory – 263,397 (162,725)
I almost included the PFI Heating Degree Day Index from December 2, 2024, as the Photo of the Week for this edition of The Pellet Wire, as I know we all have short memories when it comes to weather. Ultimately, I chose against it, owing to the simple reality that November weather and November pellet sales are ancient history. Still, that ancient history is informative. At the end of November, all 12 of the locations that make up the PFI Heating Degree Day Index were lagging behind the prior year (which itself was incredibly mild) by anywhere from 4% to 30%. Buffalo was trailing the prior year by 18%. Our Maine and New Hampshire locations were the closest to holding serve, trailing last year by just 6% and 4%, respectively. Urgency for pellet purchasing and pellet making sank to record or near-record levels. If the 129,500 number holds (it is sometimes corrected in subsequent data releases), that will be the lowest November sales total in the report’s history (since 2016).
Producers entered the month with 266,459 tons of inventory and showed a reluctance to build any more inventory. In some instances, producers may have curtailed production not only out of fear of building inventory they wouldn’t be able to move but also because they had run out of places to put it. Production was well below five-year averages in every region, with producers in the East showing the greatest restraint, producing just 81,035 tons in the month. Despite the throttle-back, inventories in the region actually climbed by 11,000 tons.
The rest of the numbers in the November data set are more of the same. It wasn’t a good month for pellet usage. November was good for late fall sightseeing and pleasant tailgating weather, but not the kind of weather that stimulates demand. These dismal numbers go down a little better because we know the weather did turn. A review of this week’s PFI Heating Degree Day Index shows 7 of 12 locations outpacing last year’s accumulated HDDs. Concord, New Hampshire; Youngstown, Ohio; and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, are all 11% or more ahead of last season’s pace. These are the kinds of figures that deliver stronger sales numbers. Unfortunately, we won’t see the full impact in the data set until December and January are released next month and in April. Make a mental note to check the inventory number first when the January data comes out on April 1. Based on the anecdotal evidence I’m hearing from my conversations with producers, I expect an inventory number below 100,000 tons for the country and maybe even flirting with some of the lowest numbers recorded in January. The lowest January inventory total was 50,112, set in 2020.
Policy Watch - PFI Fly-In April 9
The Pellet Fuels Institute legislative committee is hard at work building momentum and excitement for our 2025 fly-in (April 9), while also trying to anticipate which of our legislative priorities might start to move first.
The Farm Bill is overdue, now on its second extension and valid through the 2025 crop year. The Farm Bill is the legislative instrument that carries important wood energy programs like the Advanced Biofuels Payment Program, Community Wood Energy Grants, and Wood Innovation Grants, all of which PFI members have utilized and benefited from. The Senate and House agriculture committees have jurisdiction over the Farm Bill, and with the Republicans holding a majority in both chambers of the 119th Congress, leadership in those committees has changed. In the Senate, the committee is chaired by Sen. John Boozman (AR), and the Ranking Member is Sen. Amy Klobuchar (MN). The committee is loaded with senators from across the wood pellet industry, including Elissa Slotkin (MI), Adam Schiff (CA), John Fetterman (PA), Jim Justice (WV), Peter Welch (VT), and Tina Smith (MN), to name a few. We look forward to advancing our conversations with those members we have met with at past fly-ins while also making introductions to those committee members new to the Senate. As of press time, Brooke Rollins, the Acting Director of the Domestic Policy Council for the first Trump administration, is working through the nomination and confirmation process to become the Secretary of Agriculture. A Texan, Rollins graduated from Texas A&M with a B.S. in Agricultural Development. If confirmed, Rollins will be just the second woman to serve as Secretary of Agriculture, following Ann Veneman, who served from 2001 to 2005 under the George W. Bush administration.
Our regulatory efforts fall under the jurisdiction of the EPA, an agency that has arguably seen the most activity within the first month of the Trump administration. A week ago, the Senate confirmed Lee Zeldin as EPA Administrator. President Trump is already signaling massive change, putting 1,000 EPA employees on notice that they could be fired immediately and striking language on the EPA website about climate change. While not surprising and certainly in line with his campaign promises and actions during his first administration, these actions underscore the radical change trade groups of all kinds can expect in environmental policy direction in the United States for the next four years. The Pellet Fuels Institute membership is greatly impacted by environmental regulation and will recalibrate its advocacy approach on these matters to reflect this stark shift in direction at the agency.
Are you fascinated by all of these dynamics? Are you excited about the prospect of pushing for some meaningful regulatory reform with an administration that presents as sympathetic to the arguments of overly restrictive or misguided regulation? If you are, please consider joining us for our fly-in scheduled for April 8-9. Please email me at [email protected] for more details.
—Tim Portz
Executive Director
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Save the Date - 2025 Annual Conference
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Keep it Rolling: The talk of the industry for the last 45 days has been the return of widespread cold weather and its impact on shipments and production. This temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center offers optimism that the cold trend will continue through the first half of February at least.
Source: Climate Prediction Center
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Send Us Your Photos! Help us build a collection of photos of our members, their pellet mills, and products! Send images to Tim Portz at [email protected].
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EIA Monthly Densified Biomass Report
As of November 2024, the monthly data collection included 77 operating manufacturers of densified biomass fuel. These manufacturers had a total production capacity of 13.34 million tons per year and collectively had an equivalent of 2,438 full-time employees.
View Data
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Heating Degree Day Data
Heating Degree Day Data Weekly Summary
Climate Prediction Center-NCEP-NWS-NOAA
Accumulations are from July 1, 2024 to February 1, 2025
View Data
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Senate Confirms Zeldin to Lead Environmental Protection Agency as Trump Vows to Cute Climate Rules
The Republican-controlled Senate on Wednesday confirmed Lee Zeldin to lead the Environmental Protection Agency, a key role to help President Donald Trump fulfill his pledge to roll back major environmental regulations, including those aimed at slowing climate change and encouraging use of electric vehicles.
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Senate Confirms Zeldin to EPA Post
The U.S. Senate on Jan. 29 voted 56 to 42 to confirm Lee Zeldin to serve as administrator of the U.S. EPA. Representatives of the biofuels industry are congratulating Zeldin and expressing confidence he will keep the Renewable Fuel Standard on track.
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Trump's USDA Pick Sails Through Committee
The Senate Agriculture Committee unanimously advanced Brooke Rollins’ nomination to be agriculture secretary Monday.
The panel’s approval tees her up for a full Senate vote, though committee chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) said not to expect it this week. Rollins is expected to be easily confirmed with bipartisan support.
Read Article
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Trump Agriculture Nominee, Brooke Rollins, Clears Key Senate Hurdle Ahead of Confirmation Vote
Members of the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee voted favorably Monday for President Donald Trump's nominee, Brooke Rollins, to head up the Department of Agriculture (USDA), a widely expected outcome that clears her for a vote in the full Senate later this week.
Rollins was passed favorably out of committee on a unanimous vote.
Read Article
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Heating Fuel Prices
The Governor’s Energy Office (GEO) conducts a weekly survey of heating fuel prices, obtained from fuel retailers statewide. This survey provides the current Maine cash prices, in dollars, rounded to the nearest penny. Prices are typically updated by Friday each week.
Read Article
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Here’s how you can help us build our online community:
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Join a PFI Committee
We welcome and encourage all interested PFI members to get involved in our committees. There are many opportunities to help steer the association. No matter where your expertise and interests lie, we have a committee that will suit you. Help us plan our next conference, shape our policy agenda, lead communications outreach, or grow the PFI Standards Program.
Visit PFI's Committee Page for more information.
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Have News to Share in the Pellet Wire?
We would love to feature your company's news in a future Pellet Wire! Let us be the first to know about your company's recent developments, and we will share them with the broader pellet fuels industry.
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