From the Director’s Desk: Your Average March, Overheard at the HPBExpo – Oil Over $100 | Save the Date – PFI Annual Conference Scheduled for June 15-17
Your Average March
March Averages - in tons
East
Sales – 43,894
Production – 89,419
Inventory – 141,941
avg. inventory build – 22,295
West
Sales – 22,625
Production – 37,114
Inventory – 52,863
avg. inventory build – 21,337
South
Sales – 13,036
Production – 16,741
Inventory – 35,470
avg. inventory build – 4,041
All U.S.
Sales – 79,555
Production – 144,045
Inventory – 230,088
avg. inventory build – 48,311
Statistically, wood pellet sales in March lag all other months. Consumers, eyeing spring and warming temps, use up what they have on hand, finishing out the year in per-bag lots rather than whole tons. In just two months out of the year, total U.S wood pellet sales average less than 100,000 tons, March (79,555) and April (83,540). Operators with years of experience often talk about Valentine’s Day being the end of the heating season from a sales perspective, and sales momentum is at its lowest ebb in March. The data certainly confirms that. As recently as 2024, U.S. total pellet sales posted their lowest monthly sales volume ever (59,354) in March.
Production levels are far less variable throughout the year, and average production in March is 144,045 tons. March production has lagged the 5-year average for the last two years, and last year, manufacturers made just 123,573 tons, the lowest March total since 2018, when the industry was right-sizing an inventory position that the EIA’s Monthly Densified Fuel Report had revealed had swelled to over 600,000 tons. Sales were off last March at just 78,706 tons, and producers lagged monthly production averages for the rest spring and summer too. In fact, production numbers in 2025 trailed their 5-year averages through spring and into October, the last data we have from 2025. After a disappointing 2024-2025 season, producers showed no urgency to dramatically ramp up production.
Based on the Heating Degree Day trends and conversations with producers, I suspect that when we finally see February and March production data for 2026, we’ll see that the first quarter of 2026 saw the return to above-average monthly production in the East. Cold temperatures in key pellet-burning regions in Pennsylvania and New York generated brisk sales, depleting the inventories producers had carried into the fall. In the East, inventories had been withering since July. Between July and the end of October, inventories in the East shrank by over 100,000 tons, and my suspicion is that when March 2026 data is finally revealed (more on that later), we’ll find inventories in the region were virtually depleted.
The story in the West is the polar opposite, no pun intended. Temperatures were moderate throughout the winter, and any skier knows that the snowpack in the Rockies this year was historically low. Inventories in the West were at historic high levels going into the season (128,922 tons in July), and the anecdotal reports from the field and the PFI’s own Heating Degree Day Index don’t offer a lot of optimism. The only locations lagging last year’s accumulated HDDs are the western locations (and Little Rock), with the northern Rockies and the western plains (Rapid City at -19%) lagging the most. I know producers in the West will be closely monitoring inventory levels this year, and I would expect to see restraint on the production side in the region.
Which brings me to our continuing efforts to bring the Energy Information Administration’s Monthly Densified Biomass Fuel Report back into its traditional publication schedule. For its history, the report has followed a predictable release schedule with monthly updates issued around 60 days after the close of the month. Data for March has historically been released the first week of June. In the past, during the first week of March, the industry typically saw December data published. Right now, the most current data we have is from October. Exiting a heating season as dynamic as the 2025-26 season ended up being, these data sets are crucial for a sector already at work to ensure adequate supply for next year. The PFI is working multiple channels to underscore the critical importance of getting this data set caught up. I hope to have more details about the effectiveness of our efforts by the next edition of the Pellet Wire.
Overheard at the HPBExpo – Oil Over $100
This week, I traveled to the HPBExpo, the Hearth, Patio, and Barbecue Association’s Annual gathering of the sector. I like coming to connect with stove manufacturers and the hearth retailers to hear what’s on their minds from a regulatory, policy, and marketplace perspective. Last night I heard multiple mentions about the soaring cost of oil, and it immediately struck me that it had been a while since I’d heard about the price of oil at this event. In March of 2022, Brent crude returned to $100 territory, where it remained until July, when the price retreated back below three figures, where it has remained since. This June, the price was below $70. The conflict in Iran has shocked prices spiking crude, gasoline, and heating oil. The statewide average in Maine for heating oil this week (the state of Maine’s Heating Fuel prices report linked in the Industry News section) is $4.83, up from $3.33 just before Labor Day weekend. One of the calling cards for the benefits of wood pellet heating has been the economic advantages of a fuel price that has historically shown far less volatility than its fossil fuel marketplace competitors. When oil prices are low, the savings for wood pellet heating are muted. This data in this week’s heating fuel report out of Maine shows wood pellets burning in a pellet stove at $29.75/MMBtu compared to heating oil in an oil furnace at $49.36/MMBtu. Wood pellet heat is just 60% the price of oil right now.This is the kind of savings that incentivizes fuel switching. The timing is a miss for fuel sales this year, coming as it does at the end of the heating season, but for the first time in four years, I heard conference chatter about the price of heating oil.
Register Today – PFI Annual Conference Scheduled for June 15-17
After what feels like a month in an icebox, the warmth of summer seems impossibly distant, but concern about the heat during the PFI Annual Golf Tournament (co-located with our annual conference) is just four and a half months away. This summer, we will gather at the Grand Hotel in Point Clear, Alabama (just outside of Mobile).
PLEASE NOTE: The 2026 PFI Annual Conference will follow a Monday-Wednesday pattern instead of the Tuesday-Thursday pattern the conference followed last year.
The conference schedule is as follows:
Monday, June 15th – PFI Board Meeting
Tuesday, June 16th – PFI Golf Tournament/Opening Reception
Wednesday, June 17th – PFI Annual Conference/Panel Discussions
Please mark these dates in your calendar and watch the Pellet Wire for further announcements about the conference, including speakers, sponsorship opportunities, golf sign-ups, and travel recommendations. We look forward to seeing you there.
—Tim Portz
Executive Director
