From the Director’s Desk: Finally a Look at February Data, A Final Push for the Appliance Tax Credit, and Bring a Jacket to the Greenbrier - See You Next Week!
Finally a Look at February Data
After more than a month’s delay, the Energy Information Administration has finally released the February Data for the Monthly Densified Biomass Fuel Report. Frustratingly, a data point in the set that I can’t ever remember being withheld was held back with this latest release (inventory in the West), so the report has a blind spot of sorts.
February 2025 data (5-year average)
East
Sales – 86,335 (62,595)
Production – 76,482 (85,597)
Inventory – 99,179 (97,020)
West
Sales – 26,227 (32,000)
Production – 28,463 (36,449)
Inventory – (W) 28,066
South
Sales – 13,048 (18,782)
Production – 15,258 (25,143)
Inventory – 5,668 (27,954)
All U.S.
Sales – 125,610 (113,430)
Production – 120,203 (147,189)
Inventory – (104,847*) (157,963)
*Does not include inventory numbers from West. Withheld.
The most positive data point in February has to be the strong sales figures posted in the East. At 86,335 tons, the figure is well above the 5-year average, and when combined with January sales, the resulting 187,009 tons give the East its best 2-month start since 2019. Last year, the region moved a disappointing 130,524 tons over the same period. In fact, the 130,000-ton range predominated the East in the years between 2019 and 2025. Unfortunately, the above-average sales figures were limited to the East. Producers in the West have been lagging the 5-year average so far this year, and sales in the South were a soft 13,048 tons, or about 5,000 tons beneath the 5-year average. Production in all three regions lagged 5-year averages as producers continue to show a reticence to produce more than they are selling during in-season months. Inventories fell in the East, but only by about 12,000 tons, with the end-of-the-month number coming in at 99,179—a significant improvement over the bloated end-of-February number from last year of 156,887 tons. Again, the U.S. total picture is obscured with the West’s inventory numbers having been withheld. The inventory number may be extrapolated, however, as producers in the West produced 28,463 tons and sold 26,227 tons. Is it fair to say, then, that inventory in the West climbed roughly 2,000 tons, bringing the end-of-February inventory number there up to 81,000 tons? If so, that would bring the U.S. total to around 185,000 tons, compared to last year’s 243,108 tons.
The waiting game begins anew, as the March data should have been posted last week. Keep an eye on the Pellet Wire and expect an analysis once that March data drops. The PFI HDD Index reminds us that March continued to show the vast majority of the pellet-burning regions of this country about 10% ahead of the pace from 2024, so we should anticipate exceeding March 2024 sales numbers—but by how much? What will the data tell us about the West? Their rate of HDD accumulation is a bit of a push with 2024, with Spokane lagging last year by 3% and Baker City exceeding it by 3%.
A Final Push for the Appliance Tax Credit
As a reminder, the House version of the budget reconciliation bill, affectionately known in the mainstream press as the “Big, Beautiful Bill,” eliminates the wood pellet appliance tax credit at the end of 2025. As mentioned in the last Pellet Wire, we (and others) have pivoted our efforts to Republicans within the Senate, as in a reconciliation effort, the Democrats have no real say. Last week, the PFI reached out to other impacted industries, including door and window manufacturers, HVAC installers, and insulation manufacturers. We discovered there were robust efforts within those industries underway, and we are pleased to be able to join in with a broader constituency to make a case for the economic impact of these tax credits. While the credit these other sectors currently enjoy is smaller ($1,200 for insulation), the popularity and reach of the credit are significantly larger than that of the biomass appliance credit. In 2023, nearly 700,000 American households claimed a credit for insulation, compared to 48,180 households using a credit for biomass appliances.
The consensus thinking now is that the best bet is to push for a postponement of the phase-out offered in the House bill. Instead of the credit phasing out at the end of this year, the phase-out would happen at the end of 2028. That date is not an accident and would see the credit survive into the next Congress, where it is hoped more support for it can be found.
The fate of the 25c tax credit will likely be decided between now and the last day of our conference next week, so this figures to be an interesting topic of discussion for our panelists and attendees next week.
Bring a Jacket to the Greenbrier – See You Next Week!
Are you joining us for the PFI Annual Conference next week? If so, you’ll need to pack a jacket (or two). The Greenbrier is fancy and requests that guests wear jackets in many of the public restaurants.
For more information on the Greenbrier dress code, review their dress code policy.
